A fresh wave of a long-running national survey checks America’s pulse on the specter of another civil war—and finds most people still don’t see it coming. Conducted in late May–mid-June 2024 with more than 8,100 adults, the study in Injury Epidemiology revisited the same respondents tracked since 2022.

Only a sliver of the public felt strongly that a civil war is on the horizon: 6.5 percent “strongly” or “very strongly” agreed it will happen “in the next few years,” and just 3.6 percent thought the country actually needs a civil war to set things right. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from the 2023 survey. =

Support and pessimism were not spread evenly. People who, in earlier waves, had shown a higher tolerance for political violence—certain gun owners, partisan hard-liners and conspiracy believers—were more likely to expect or endorse a civil war.

Even within this small faction, many are persuadable. About 3.7 percent said they were very or extremely likely to take up arms themselves, yet nearly half of them said a plea from family would make them rethink it; roughly one-quarter would reconsider if urged by friends, faith leaders, elected officials or trusted media voices.

Bottom line: talk of impending civil war remains fringe, but targeted outreach—especially from close personal networks—could further shrink the pool of would-be combatants. The authors argue these insights should shape violence-prevention strategies heading into another high-stakes election year.